Pro democracy demonstration in Warsaw, oktober 1 2023.
Bidkälla/Image source: twitter/Platforma Obywatelska.
Soon there are parliamentary elections in Poland. The election has already been described as the most important since 1989. Much is at stake for the Poles themselves but also for the EU, Europe and for Ukraine. For Putin’s Russia, it sees it as the best chance so far to divide the West over the Ukraine issue.
During two terms of office, the country has been governed by the party PiS, (Law and Order), and its smaller, semi-independent subsidiary parties. At the head of PiS is the great little leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. He is a skilled domestic politician, a cunning power player and schemer while at the same time displaying surprising ignorance and indifference about vital issues, not least economics and – even worse – foreign policy. Like Hungary’s Orban or Turkey’s Erdogan, he aspires to the role of a modern autocrat but lacks all their dexterity on the international stage. While Orban and Erdogan skillfully maneuver to win very tangible advantages (EU grants and modern weapons systems from the USA respectively), Kaczynski’s Poland repeatedly finds itself on a collision course with the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Tribunal in Strasbourg as well as Washington – both the Biden administration and Congress!
In all cases, it is about various types of violations of democratic legal principles at home that do not go unnoticed abroad – to the great surprise and irritation of the ruling clique in Warsaw. They still haven’t managed to get around 140 billion zloty (over 30 bilion euro) out of the EU’s reconstruction fund after the pandemic.
The country of Poland has gained a tremendous amount of reputation for its commitment and willingness to accept refugees from Ukraine. It is important to remember, however, that the reception was primarily due to an unprecedented turnout among voluntary private individuals, later followed by voluntary organisations. The country’s authorities, especially at the government level, were conspicuous by their absence and contented themselves in practice with following EU directives in the matter of receiving Ukrainian refugees.
Even this gigantic goodwill is now being squandered by entering into a quarrel with Ukraine regarding its export of grain through Poland. Part of the fact that the shipments have apparently never left the country and were sold black by corrupt traders. The dispute has escalated quickly with Prime Minister Morawiecki declaring in Warsaw that Poland no longer intends to supply Ukraine with weapons, but instead invests in its own defense. A statement that runs counter to the West’s united front against Russia, and was quite rightly met with surprise and consternation.
But why all its politics that stir up so much bad blood in the West? The answer is as simple as in the case of Orban and Erdogan and it is spelled domestic politics.
Kaczynski’s regime was able to win, maintain, and now tries to defend its position of power largely through a combination of two things: a generous distribution policy aimed at weaker groups in society and an intense, sometimes brutal and ruthless nationalist, xenophobic and homophobic propaganda aimed at everything and everyone outside the narrow-minded electorate: foreign migrants (bringing vermin and spreading disease), Brussels (dictated worse than the one during the Soviet era), EU (doing Germany’s business), Berlin (always Nazis), LGBTQ+ people (sexualizing children and undermining it healthy family policy) and so on. Pure racism and classic anti-Semitism lurk beneath the surface all the time: Look what THEY want to do to us!
All these outcomes can be perfectly combined with each other such as Berlin using the EU to spread evil “LGBT ideology” to undermine the Polish nation and then replace its weakened population with all kinds of migrants to finally take over.
People like to dress in patriotic, Catholic colors, but the sick world view shines right through the double standards.
The opposition and are regularly portrayed as fifth columnists and traitors. Its indisputable leader, Donald Tusk, back in Poland since the time as the President of the Council of Europe has to receive the worst kind of accusations, insults and gross abuse.
Domestically, PiS controls most of the media, including state terrestrial television, which reaches everyone with its twisted, hateful message. An independent television channel survived only because it was defended by Washington (the station is owned by American Discovery). A large part of the local press is owned by state companies, controlled by PiS and spreads the same message.
They routinely distort the facts and not infrequently lie outright. Lies have also become a favorite trick in the increasingly vicious election campaign. Many prominent PiS politicians have the habit inside. Prime Minister Morawiecki has long been called Pinocchio, not just for his pointed nose.
Independent newspapers and magazines have been subjected to financial pressure – all advertising from state-owned companies has long been placed in PiS-friendly media. The state-owned fuel group Orlen even runs its own pro-government ads. Before the election, Orlen has also lowered the price of petrol and oil – all to make people like the current regime.
State security agencies have also been used to illegally eavesdrop on opposition politicians
and attempt to either find or fabricate compromising information. The extent of government interception with Pegasus is not fully known. In addition, they have a politicized prosecutor’s office and some corrupt judges, senior military and police officers to help them. The police are used on a small but unfortunately increasingly large scale to put down demonstrations against PiS.
The approach is hardly unique, PiS closely follows examples from Hungary or Turkey. PiS and its electorate are also outspoken supporters of Donald Trump. The Polish government took a very, very long time to congratulate Joe Biden after he defeated Trump. One sincerely hopes that Trump will regain the presidency.
Last but not least, we have increasingly tangible similarities between the kleptocratic power apparatus that PiS has built and Putin’s Russia. Despite the government’s anti-Russian rhetoric, there are clear, frightening similarities between the two countries’ ruling, deeply corrupt groups. The anti-Russian rhetoric is actually much smaller in scope than one might have thought. It is often overshadowed by the aforementioned criticism of the opposition and democracies in the West. And that is precisely what constitutes the greatest danger – for the country of Poland itself and for the democratic and liberal West.
If PiS wins the upcoming election (on October 14), the democratic Poland we have known and admired since liberation from communism in 1989 will be over. If the Poles do not vote PiS out of power, they will no longer live in a democratic country. It would be the ultimate disaster for millions of citizens, not least the young generation who have grown up in a European country, with all the freedoms and privileges that entails.
Increasingly authoritarian, anti-liberal and undemocratic Poland will eventually be isolated from the West, isolated (perhaps even excluded) from the EU. PiS will retain power and its corrupt clients their lucrative domains but the country will inevitably fall more and more under Moscow’s control. What will be its next step? Disrupt or stop military aid to Ukraine – like Orban’s Hungary? We have every reason to be concerned.
But we can hope. On October 1, about 1 million people took part in a democratic march through Warsaw, people who do not want to live under PiS’s corrupt, lied to regime.
We can hope that Poland – like once in the 1980s and 1990s – chooses the West.
