“It’s alive! It’s alive!” Doctor Frankenstein yelled as he saw his pattern move after being struck by lightning. Now it’s Dr. Putinstein’s turn to shout the same thing, this time with trepidation and consternation. Thwarted by the lynch mob with the torches, the monster began to thrash around wildly and violently. So also the present-day monster Wagner/Prigozhin, crowded and even bombarded by Shojgu’s soldiers, has begun to fight for his life.
Prigozhin must feel cheated. He could have continued to pursue his lucrative wars in Africa. Instead, he committed himself and his army of mercenaries in Putin’s rather hopeless military adventure in Ukraine. Wagner troops had to move into the battlefields where the regular Russian army could not cope with the task. After several months of bloody fighting, they have finally captured (well almost) the symbolically charged Bachmut – at a price of terrible losses, not only among the thousands of criminals, who could easily be replaced, but also among the hardened veterans of the Wagner group.
As a thank you, Wagner and Prigozhin now had to beautifully subordinate themselves to the country’s regular army, to the despised and hated minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of general staff Gierasimov. And Putin did not lift a finger in their defense. Nor when Wagner troops were bombed by Russian warplanes (according to reports). And Putinstein’s monster began to fight wildly.
Prigozhin refrained (so far) from officially breaking with his master. Instead he directly targeted the Russian military leadership in general and its boss, Shoigu in particular. At the same time, he urged the military itself to join him. Early on, he suffered a setback when his ally, Sergei Surovikin, publicly criticized the action.
The Wagner group has reportedly taken control of all military infrastructure in Rostov-on-Don and entered the Voronezh region. Rostov is the main location for Russia’s forces in Ukraine, Crimea, the Caucasus and the Black Sea, i.e. strategic key location for ongoing and presumptive conflicts in the South.
The die is cast
Prigozhin is now literally fighting for his life. He has crossed his Rubicon. Prigozhin has called on the Russian military to join his campaign against Shoigu & co. Official Russia condemns Prigozhin and urges Wagner troops to surrender and join loyalist troops. It is difficult to see how the two sides in the conflict will be able to avoid an escalation, but everyone involved is surely aware that should they fail in the task, it will play right into Ukraine’s hands.
A hypothetical variant: the Wagner troops reach Moscow, take over the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, and shoot Shoigu and Gerasimov. Then Prigozhin can proclaim that he is taking over the leadership of the war. He can also report to the president that everything is under control and that the warfare in Ukraine will be handled professionally.
The nearest time will tell..
Addendum 22:00 24/6: Now he has turned back, Prigozhin. Can he go back across the Rubicon? How long does he have left to live? And where?
And where is the Minister of Defense, Shojgu? Is he alive? Is he still at large? Does he still have his post? And his pal Gerasimov? The questions pile up. Time will tell…
